Voters
Who Lives Here.
Who Votes.
The territory lost 18% of its population in a decade. The voter rolls shrank 22%. The median age jumped from 39 to 46. The under-18 population — tomorrow's voters — fell by 37%. Before the 2026 election, here is what the numbers actually say about who the USVI is, island by island, and who decides its elections.
The territory is getting older — fast
In just one decade, the median age in the USVI jumped from 39.2 years in 2010 to 45.9 years in 2020 — a 6.7-year increase. That's one of the largest median age increases documented in any U.S. jurisdiction in that period. What drove it: younger residents left after HOVENSA closed in 2012 and again after Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017. Older residents, with deeper roots and homeownership, stayed.
The most striking number: the population under 18 — the next generation of voters — fell by 37% territory-wide between 2010 and 2020. On St. Croix, that number was 39%. This means the electorate of 2030 and 2034 is already dramatically smaller than today's.
These are not unregistered residents. These are people who signed up, who are on the rolls, who were eligible — and chose not to vote, or couldn't make it, or didn't think it mattered. In a race decided by 3,913 votes, they represent more than four times the winning margin sitting on the sideline.
The 17,353 who stayed home didn't just sit out the governor's race. They sat out every race on the ballot — including a Senate seat on St. Croix decided by 140 votes.
The candidate who moves the most non-voters — especially on St. Croix, where Election Day voting went against Bryan — wins 2026. The 17,353 are the election.
Early voting decided the election
Vialet won Election Day voting on St. Croix by 738 votes. But Bryan led the territory-wide early vote by 2,789 votes — collecting 6,834 early ballots to Vialet's 4,045. Of the 22,557 total votes cast, more than half were cast before Election Day. Bryan's campaign banked its advantage in the early voting window (October 10–31) and held it through election day.
Early vote breakdown: St. Croix cast 5,963 early ballots, St. Thomas–St. John cast 5,518 (including 368 on St. John). St. Croix actually turned out more early voters than St. Thomas despite having a slightly smaller population — a sign of high engagement on the island that most expected Vialet to carry.
A shrinking electorate
Registered voters fell from roughly 51,000 in 2010 to 39,910 in 2022 — a 22% drop tracking closely with the population loss. If outmigration continues at the same rate, the 2026 registered voter pool could be smaller still. Every vote counts more in a smaller electorate.
Early voting is decisive
More than half of 2022's votes were cast before Election Day. Any 2026 candidate who doesn't have a strong early voting operation is already behind. The window runs approximately 22 days before the general election.
St. Croix is the swing island
Bryan held St. Thomas by a 40-point margin — that island is not in play. St. Croix is where the 2026 governor's race will be decided. Vialet won same-day St. Croix votes in 2022, but Bryan's early vote advantage overcame it territory-wide.
17,353 registered voters didn't show up
In a race decided by 3,913 votes, that non-voting pool is enormous. Candidates who can move even a fraction of non-voters — particularly on St. Croix — could flip the outcome. Turnout mobilization is the arithmetic of 2026.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2020 Island Areas Census (data.census.gov); Federal Reserve Bank of New York, USVI Economic Profile (2023); Elections System of the Virgin Islands, 2022 Official Results; VI Consortium, election night reporting Nov. 8–9, 2022; St. Thomas Source, General Election Results Certified Nov. 19, 2022; Elections System of the VI, 2022 Early Voting Statistic Reports; Wikipedia, 2022 U.S. Virgin Islands gubernatorial election. Island-level same-day vote totals are from unofficial results as reported by VI Consortium on election night; official certified results may vary slightly by precinct.